EIA updates bioenergy forecasts in recent reports

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the December edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, predicting total renewables used in the electric power sector will decrease by 2 percent this year. Hydropower generation is expected to be down 8.6 percent, with nonhydropower renewables up 4.4 percent.

Wood biomass is expected to be used to generate 115,000 MWh per day of electricity per day this year, increasing to 116,000 MWh per day next year. Waste biomass is expected to be used to generate 58,000 MWh per day of electricity this year, increasing to 60,000 MWh per day next year.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.244 quadrillion Btu (quad) of wood biomass this year, increasing to 0.25 quad next year. The sector is also expected to consume 0.26 quad of waste biomass this year, increasing to 0.27 quad next year.

The industrial sector is expected to consume 1.273 quad of wood biomass this year, dropping to 1.236 quad next year. Waste biomass consumption by the sector is expected to reach 0.188 quad this year, increasing to 0.189 quad next year.

The commercial sector is expected to consume 0.076 quad of wood biomass and 0.045 quad of waste biomass this year. Next year, the sector is expected to consume 0.077 quad of wood biomass and 0.043 quad of waste biomass.

The EIA’s Electric Power Monthly report, released Dec. 1, notes U.S. utility-scale facilities generated 3.47 million MWh of electricity from wood biomass in September, up from 3.46 million MWh the same month of the prior year. Other forms of biomass were used by utility-scale facilities to produce 1.73 million MWh of electricity in September, down from 1.77 million MWh in September 2014. During the first nine months of this year, utility-scale facilities used wood biomass to generate 32.06 million MWh of electricity, up from 31.678 million MWh during the same period of the previous year. Utility-scale facilities also used other forms of biomass to generate 16.17 million MWh of electricity during the first nine months of this year, down from 16.47 million MWh during the same period of 2014.

The Electric Power Monthly report shows the U.S. added 36.7 MW of utility-scale bioenergy capacity in September, including 32 MW from wood biomass, 0.9 MW from landfill gas, and 2.8 MW from waste biomass. As of the end of September, the U.S. has nearly 13.7 GW of biomass energy capacity. Approximately 132.8 MW of biomass capacity is expected to be added over the next 12 months, including 44.6 MW of capacity from wood, 51.3 MW of capacity from landfill gas, and 36.9 MW of capacity from waste biomass.

The STEO predicts the residential sector will consume 0.447 quad of wood biomass this year, dropping to 0.418 quad next year.

Nearly 2.62 million households across the U.S. are expected to use wood as a primary heating fuel this winter, up 1.3 percent compared to last winter. This includes 596,000 households in the Northeast, a 2.36 percent increase; 635,000 households in the Midwest, up 0.8 percent; 627,000 households in the South, up 2.4 percent; and 757,000 households in the West, down 0.3 percent.

Regarding home heating, the EIA STEO indicates the average household that uses heating oil as its primary space heating fuel is expected to pay an average of $2.50 per gallon this winter, 54 cents per gallon lower than last year. The average household is now expected to spend $1,360 for heating oil this winter, down $493 from last year. According to the EIA, the reduced cost also reflects lower consumption due to expected warmer temperatures this winter compared with last winter. Lower residential natural gas prices and warmer temperatures are also expected to result in 13 percent lower expenditures for consumers using natural gas as their primary space heating fuel. The 8 percent drop in U.S. heating degree days this winter compared to last winter is also expected to result in a 1.6 percent decline in winter retail sales of electricity to the residential sector.