EIA: Updates bioenergy forecasts, predicts capacity increase

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the April edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, predicting renewables will produce 18 percent of U.S. electricity this year, increasing to nearly 20 percent in 2020.

In total, renewable energy sources are expected to be used to generate 2.058 million megawatt hours (MWh) per day of electricity this year, increasing to 2.198 million MWh per day in 2020. Biomass sources will contribute a portion of that generation.

According to the EIA, wood biomass is expected to be used to generate 117,000 MWh per day this year, increasing to 18,000 MWh per day next year. Generation from waste biomass is expected to average 57,000 MWh per day this year, increasing to 58,000 MWh per day next year.

Within the electric power sector, generation from biomass is expected to reach 89,000 MWh per day this year, increasing to 90,000 MWh per day next year. That includes 48,000 MWh per day from waste biomass in 2019, increasing 49,000 MWh per day in 2020, and 41,000 MWh per day from wood biomass in both 2019 and 2020.

Across other sectors, generation from biomass is expected to reach 85,000 MWh per day this year, including 77,000 MWh per day from waste biomass and 9,000 MWh per day from wood biomass. Those levels of generation are expected to be maintained in 2020.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.271 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass this year, increasing to 0.273 quad next year. The sector is also expected to consume 0.244 quad of wood biomass this year, increasing to 0.248 quad next year.

The industrial sector is expected to consume 0.168 quad of waste biomass in both 2019 and 2020. The sector’s consumption of wood biomass is expected fall, from 1.435 quad in 2019 to 1.408 quad in 2020.

The commercial sector is expected to consume 0.044 quad of waste biomass and 0.084 quad of wood biomass in both 2019 and 2020.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.53 quad of biomass this year, increasing to 0.54 quad next year.

Across all sectors, waste biomass consumption is expected to reach 0.483 quad in 2019, increasing to 0.486 quad in 2020. The consumption of wood biomass is expected to reach 2.292 quad this year, and fall to 2.28 quad next year.

Within the electric power sector, total biomass capacity is expected to reach 7,322 MW by the end of 2019, including 4,168 MW from waste biomass and 3,154 MW from wood biomass. Biomass capacity is expected to increase to 7,367 MW by the end of 2020, including 4,171 MW of waste biomass capacity and 3,196 MW of wood biomass capacity.

Across other sectors, total biomass capacity is expected to reach 6,667 MW by the end of this year, including 887 MW from waste biomass and 5,781 MW from wood biomass. Those capacity levels are expected to be maintained through the end of 2020.