EIA updates bioenergy generation, capacity forecasts

Renewables are currently expected to account for 22 percent of U.S. electricity generation in 2022 and 24 percent in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 7. Renewables accounted for 20 percent of U.S. electricity generation last year.

The U.S. electric power sector is currently expected to generate 4,047.3 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity this year, falling to 4,024.1 billion kWh in 2023. Biomass is forecasted to account for 26.3 billion kWh of that volume in 2022 and 26.1 billion kWh in 2023. The electric power sector generated 3,962.8 billion kWh of electricity last year. Biomass accounted for 27.9 billion kWh of 2021 generation.

The 27.9 billion kWh of biomass electricity generated by the electric power sector last year included 15.5 billion kWh from waste biomass and 12.4 billion kWh from wood biomass. The 26.3 billion kWh of biomass electricity generation forecast for 2022 is expected to include 14.9 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.4 billion kWh from wood biomass, while the 26.1 billion kWh of biomass generation forecast for 2023 is expected to include 14.8 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.3 billion kWh from wood biomass.

Across other sectors, biomass power generation reached 27.6 billion kWh in 2021, including 2.8 billion kWh of from waste biomass and 24.8 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation is expected to fall slightly to 27.4 billion kWh this year, including 2.8 billion kWh from waste biomass and 24.6 billion kWh from wood biomass. Those levels of generation are expected to be maintained through 2023.

The electric power sector consumed 0.236 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass last year Consumption is expected to fall to 0.23 quad this year and 0.229 quad in 2023. The sector also consumed 0.199 quad of wood biomass last year, with consumption expected to fall to 0.186 quad in 2022 and 0.184 quad in 2023.

The industrial sector is expected to consume 0.162 quad of waste biomass in 2022, increasing to 0.163 quad in 2023. The sector consumed 0.16 quad of waste biomass in 2021. The industrial sector is also expected to consume 1.363 quad of wood biomass this year, increasing to 1.41 quad next year, up from 1.342 quad in 2021.

The commercial sector is expected to consume 0.036 quad of waste biomass in both 2022 and 2023, up from 0.035 in 2021. The sector also consumed 0.083 quad of wood biomass in 2021, with that level of consumption expected to be maintained through this year and next year.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.0467 quad of wood biomass in 2022 and 2023, up from 0.464 quad in 2021.

Across all sectors, waste biomass consumption as at 0.431 quad in 2021 and is expected to fall to 0.43 quad in 2022 and 0.428 quad in 2023. Wood biomass consumption was at 2.087 quad last year and is expected to increase to 2.099 quad in 2022 and 2.143 quad in 2023.

The electric power sector had 5,977 megawatts (MW) of biomass power capacity in place at the end of 2021, including 3,674 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,303 MW of wood biomass capacity. Total biomass capacity is expected to increase to 6,003 MW by the end of 2022, including 3,700 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,303 MW of wood biomass capacity. The sector’s biomass capacity is expected to fall to 5,920 MW by the end of 2023, with waste biomass capacity falling to 3,618 MW and wood biomass capacity maintained at 2,303 MW.

Across other sectors, biomass capacity was at 6,214 MW at the end of 2021, including 829 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,385 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to increase to 6,217 MW by the end of 2022, including 828 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,389 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to increase to 6,221 MW by the end of 2023, with waste biomass capacity maintained at 828 MW and wood biomass capacity increasing to 5,393 MW.