EIA updates bioenergy generation, capacity forecasts

Renewables are expected to account for 24 percent of U.S. electricity generation this year, increasing to 26 percent in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Jan. 10. Renewables accounted for 21 percent of electricity generation in 2022.

The electric power sector generated 26.5 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity from biomass last year, including 14.2 billion kWh from waste biomass and 12.3 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation is expected to fall to 25.6 billion kWh this year, including 14.2 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.4 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation is currently expected to be at 26 billion kWh in 2024, including 14.2 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.8 billion kWh from wood biomass.

Across other sectors, biomass generation was at 26.9 billion kWh last year, including 2.9 billion kWh from waste biomass and 24.1 billion kWh from wood biomass. Those levels of generation are expected to be maintained this year. Moving into 2024, biomass generation is expected to reach 27 billion kWh, including 2.9 billion kWh of generation from waste biomass and 24.1 billion kWh from wood biomass.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.213 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass in both 2023 and 2024, down from 0.214 quad in 2022. The sector is also expected to consume 0.181 quad of wood biomass this year, increasing to 0.187 quad next year. Consumption of wood biomass was at 0.197 quad in 2022.

The industrial sector is expected to consume 0.159 quad of waste biomass in both 2023 and 2024, down from 0.16 quad last year. The sector also consumed 1.292 quad of wood biomass in 2022, with consumption expected to increase to 1.365 quad this year and 1.37 quad next year.

The commercial sector consumed 0.037 quad of waste biomass in 2022. That level of consumption is expected to be maintained in 2023 and increase to 0.038 quad in 2024. The sector also consumed 0.083 quad of wood biomass this year, with that level of consumption expected to be maintained through this year and next year.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.479 quad of wood biomass in 2023 and 2024, flat with last year.

The electric power sector had 5,994 megawatts (MW) of biomass capacity in place at the end of 2022, including 3,560 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,435 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to increase to 6,009 MW by the end of 2023, including 3,590 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,419 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to reach 6,028 MW by the end of 2024, including 3,609 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,419 MW of wood biomass capacity.

Across other sectors, biomass capacity was at 6,312 MW at the end of 2022, including 817 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,495 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to increase to 6,330 MW by the end of 2023, with waste biomass capacity maintained at 817 MW and wood biomass capacity increasing to 5,513 MW. Those levels of capacity are currently expected to be maintained through the end of 2024.