The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2026 renewable diesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Aug. 12. The 2026 forecast for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production was lowered, but the outlook for biodiesel production was maintained.Renewable diesel production is expected to average 210,000 barrels per day this year, unchanged when compared to last month’s forecast. The EIA now predicts renewable diesel production will average 260,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from last month’s forecast of 250,000 barrels per day. Renewable diesel production averaged 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.Net imports of renewable diesel are expected to average -20,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, unchanged from the July outlook. Net imports of renewable diesel averaged 30,000 barrels per day last year.&nbsp;The EIA reduced its forecast for 2025 renewable diesel consumption to 180,000 barrels per day, down from the July forecast of 190,000 barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that renewable diesel consumption will average 230,000 barrels per day in 2026. Renewable diesel consumption was at 240,000 barrels per day last year.&nbsp;The EIA maintained its forecast that production of “other biofuels” will average 40,000 barrels per day this year. “Other biofuels” are defined to include renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel including SAF, alternative jet fuel and biojet; renewable naphtha; renewable gasoline; and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization. The agency now predicts the production of “other biofuels” will remain at 40,000 barrels per day next year, down from last month’s forecast of 50,000 barrels per day. The production of “other biofuel” was at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.&nbsp;Net imports of “other biofuels” are forecast at zero for 2025 and 2026, unchanged from 2024.&nbsp;The consumption of “other biofuels” is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025, unchanged from the previous forecast. The EIA now expects the consumption of “other biofuels” to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from the July outlook of 50,000 barrels per day. The consumption of “other biofuels” was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.&nbsp;Biodiesel production is expected to average 90,000 barrels per day this year and 100,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts are unchanged when compared to last month. Biodiesel production was at 110,000 barrels per day last year.&nbsp;Net imports of biodiesel are forecast at zero for both 2025 and 2026, unchanged when compared to the July STEO. Net imports of biodiesel averaged 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.&nbsp;Biodiesel consumption is expected to average 90,000 barrels per day this year and 100,000 barrel per day next year. Both forecasts were maintained from last month. Biodiesel consumption was at 120,000 barrels per day in 2024.&nbsp;

2025-08-15 - EIA boosts forecast for 2026 renewable diesel production  (3 publications)

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The U.S. EIA increased its forecast for 2026 renewable diesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Aug. 12. The 2026 forecast for SAF production was lowered, but the outlook for biodiesel production was maintained.

EIA boosts forecast for 2026 renewable diesel production

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