FutureMetrics LLC on Aug. 21 published a white paper that describes how converting U.S. coal-fired power plants to burn wood pellets can help fill the projected gap between U.S. power generation capacity and electricity demand.&nbsp;The white paper, authored by FutureMetrics President and Founder William Struass, explains that electricity demand could increase by 175 gigawatts (GW) over the next decade, fueled in part by increased power demand from AI. At the same time, hundreds of old coal-fired plants representing more than 110 GW of capacity are scheduled to retire resulting in an expected gap of nearly 300 GW of capacity over the next 10 years.&nbsp;Further complicating the issue, Strauss notes that many U.S. nuclear power plants are already beyond their original useful life estimates and current policies are inhibiting growth in wind and solar generation, along with the required energy storage capacity to buffer their variability and intermittency. While some new gas-fired generation is planned, Strauss said it is not enough to fill the expected gap.&nbsp;The use of wood pellets, however, can help provide a solution. Strauss cites success in the U.K., where former coal plants now provide baseload power using wood pellets. Most of the wood pellet fuel currently used in the U.K. comes from the U.S. Strauss estimates the U.S. exported just under 7 million metric tons of wood pellets to the U.K. last year.&nbsp;U.K. demand for wood pellets will change dramatically in early 2027 due to a changing subsidy structure. According to Strauss, that change will cause millions of metric tons of pellets to become available. There is also significant potential for additional U.S. wood pellet production. “The ability of the U.S. pellet fuel production market to grow is a long way from the boundaries of sustainability,” Strauss wrote.&nbsp;Wood pellets also offer the opportunity for carbon-negative power production via the use of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). &nbsp;&nbsp;“The owners and operators of AI processing centers should integrate into the existing infrastructure that is already built and already connected by offering to buy baseload electricity over a reasonable term (perhaps 10 years) at a rate that supports the conversion of selected coal stations from coal to upgraded energy-dense sustainably sourced low carbon-solid fuel made in the U.S.,” Strauss concludes. “This will not only take some pressure off the need for future capacity, but it will also give a longer life to the large fixed assets that otherwise will become the fossils of the fossil fuel power generation sector.”A full copy of the white paper is available on the FutureMetrics <a href="https://www.futuremetrics.info/">website</a>

2025-08-25 - FutureMetrics: Coal-to-wood pellet conversions can help meet projected growth in US power demand (Biomass Magazine)

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FutureMetrics LLC on Aug. 21 published a white paper that describes how converting U.S. coal-fired power plants to burn wood pellets can help fill the projected gap between U.S. power generation capacity and electricity demand. 

FutureMetrics: Coal-to-wood pellet conversions can help meet projected growth in US power demand

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