EIA updates short-term bioenergy, residential wood heat forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the January edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, predicting total renewables used in the electric power sector will increase by 9.5 percent this year.

Although President Obama signed legislation in December extending the Section 45 production tax credit for renewable energy through the end of this year, the EIA said it expects little impact from the extension because most plants that will enter service this year are already being developed. The administration also indicated the U.S. EPA’s recent approval of the Clean Power Plan might also impact renewable builds over the next several years. However, the near-term effects will be less certain until states start to lay out their implementation plans.

Across all sectors, the EIA predicts wood biomass will be used to generate 115,000 MWh per day of electricity this year, increasing to 118,000 MWh per day next year. Generation from waste biomass is expected to average 60,000 MWh per day each year.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.243 quadrillion Btu (quad) of wood biomass this year, falling to 0.252 quad next year. The sector is also expected to consume 0.275 quad of waste biomass, falling to 0.274 quad next year.

The industrial sector is expected to consume 1.234 quad of wood biomass this year, increasing to 1.24 quad next year. The sector is also expected to consume 0.196 quad of waste biomass this year, increasing to 0.199 quad next year.

The commercial sector is expected to consume 0.043 quad of wood biomass this year and next year, along with 0.02 quad of waste biomass.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.418 quad of wood biomass this year, increasing to 0.426 quad next year.

The EIA predicts nearly 2.62 million households in the U.S. will use wood as a primary heating fuel during the winter of 2015-’16, up 1.3 percent. This includes 596,000 households in the Northeast, up 2.6 percent; 635,000 households in the Midwest, up 0.8 percent; 627,000 households in the South, up 2.4 percent; and 757,000 households in the West, down 0.3 percent.

The EIA’s most recent Electric Power Monthly report, published in late December, indicates that 46 MW of bioenergy capacity was added in the U.S. in September, including 40 MW of capacity from wood and wood waste biomass and 6 MW from landfill gas. Approximately 162.8 MW of bioenergy capacity is currently expected to be added over the next 12 months, including 56.6 MW of capacity from wood and wood waste, 55.3 MW from municipal solid waste, and 40.9 MW from other waste bioma