EIA updates bioenergy forecasts for 2019, 2020

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the January edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, predicting that the total share of renewable electricity generation will reach 18 percent in 2019 and 20 percent in 2020, up from 17 percent in 2018. The share of total generation for non-hydropower renewables is expected to reach 11 percent this year and 13 percent next year, up from 10 percent in 2018.

Wood biomass is expected to be used to generate 118,000 MWh per day this year, increasing to 119,000 MWh per day next year. Generation from waste biomass is also expected to increase, from 58,000 MWh per day this year, to 59,000 MWh per day next year.

In the electric power sector, wood biomass is expected to be used to generate 49,000 MWh per day this year, increasing to 50,000 MWh per day next year. Generation from wood biomass is also expected to increase slightly, from 41,000 MWh per day in 2019 to 42,000 MWh per day in 2020.

Across all other sectors, generation from waste biomass is expected to reach 77,000 MWh per day this year and next year, with generation from wood biomass at 9,000 MWh per day in both 2019 and 2020.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.278 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass this year, increasing to 0.28 quad next year. The sector is also expected to consume 0.238 quad of wood biomass this year, increasing to 0.245 quad next year.

The industrial sector is expected to consume 0.166 quad of waste biomass in both 2019 and 2020, with the consumption of wood biomass expected to fall from 1.421 quad in 2019 to 0.412 quad in 2020.

The commercial sector is expected to consume 0.044 quad of waste biomass and 0.084 quad of wood biomass in both 2019 and 2020.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.42 quad of wood biomass this year and next year.

Across all sectors, waste biomass consumption is expected to reach 0.488 quad this year, increasing to 0.491 quad next year. The consumption of wood biomass, however, is expected to fall slightly, from 2.163 quad in 2019 to 2.16 quad in 2020.

The EIA predicts total biomass power capacity will reach 7,358 MW by the end of 2019, up from 7,201 MW in 2018. By the end of 2020, total biomass capacity is expected to grow to 7,401 MW. Waste biomass capacity is expected to reach 4,212 MW this year, down slightly from 4,214 MW in 2018. Next year, waste biomass capacity is expected to increase to 4,213 MW. Wood biomass capacity is expected to reach 3,146 MW this year, up from 2,987 MW in 2018. In 2020, wood biomass capacity is expected to increase to 3,188 MW.