EIA updates bioenergy forecasts, predicts capacity increase

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the March edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, predicting that nonhydropower renewables will provide 11 percent of U.S. electricity generation this year, increasing to 13 percent next year. Nonhydropower renewables provided approximately 10 percent of U.S. electricity generation last year.

The EIA currently predicts wood biomass will be used to generate 116,000 MWh per day of electricity in both 2019 and 2020. Waste biomass is expected to be used to generate 58,000 MWh per day in both years.

In the electric power sector, biomass is expected to be used to generate 88,000 MWh per day this year, including 49,000 MWh per day from waste biomass and 39,000 MWh per day from wood biomass. In 2020, the sector is expected to generate 91,000 MWh per day from biomass, including 49,000 MWh per day from waste biomass and 42,000 MWh per day from wood biomass.

Across other sectors, biomass is expected to be used to generate 86,000 MWh per day in 2019, including 77,000 MWh per day from waste biomass and 9,000 MWh per day from wood biomass. Those generation levels are expected to be maintained in 2020.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.274 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass this year, increasing to 0.276 quad next year. The sector is also expected to consume 0.232 quad of waste biomass in 2019, increasing to 0.248 quad in 2020.

The industrial sector is expected to consume 0.167 quad of waste biomass this year, increasing to 0.168 quad next year. The sector is also expected to consume 0.43 quad of wood biomass in 2019, falling to 1.407 quad in 2020.

The commercial sector is expected to consume 0.044 quad of waste biomass and 0.084 quad of wood biomass in both 2019 and 2020.

The residential sector’s consumption of wood biomass is also expected to remain stable in 2019 and 2020 at 0.42 quad.

Across all sectors, the consumption of waste biomass is expected to reach 0.486 quad this year, increasing slightly to 0.488 quad in 2020. Consumption of wood biomass, however, is expected to fall, from 2.167 quad in 2019 to 2.159 quad in 2020.

Within the electric power sector, total biomass capacity is expected to reach 7,352 MW this year, including 4,206 MW of waste biomass capacity and 3,146 MW of wood biomass capacity. Overall capacity is expected to increase to 7,395 MW in 2020, including 4,207 MW of waste biomass capacity and 3,188 MW of wood biomass capacity.

Across other sectors, biomass capacity is expected to remain stable in 2019 and 2020 at 6,640 MW, including 889 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,751 MW of wood biomass capacity.