EIA updates bioenergy forecasts

Renewables are expected to account for 22 percent of U.S. electricity generation this year, increasing to 24 percent in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released March 8. Renewables accounted for 20 percent of U.S. electricity production last year.

The electric power sector generated 27.9 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity from biomass last year, including 15.5 billion kWh from waste biomass and 12.4 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation is expected to increase to 26.1 billion kWh this year, including 15.2 billion kWh from waste biomass and 10.9 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation is expected to reach 26.23 billion kWh in 2023, including 15 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.2 billion kWh from wood biomass.

Across other sectors, biomass generation reached 27.6 billion kWh last year, including 2.8 billion kWh from waste biomass and 24.8 billion kWh from wood biomass. Those levels of generation are expected to be maintained through 2022 and 2023.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.231 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass this year, falling to 0.229 quad in 2023. The sector consumed 0.236 quad of waste biomass last year. The electric power sector is also expected to consume 0.176 quad of wood biomass in 2022, increasing to 0.18 quad in 2023. The sector consumed 0.199 quad of wood biomass in 2021.

The industrial sector consumed 0.16 quad of waste biomass last year. That level of consumption is expected to be maintained through 2022 and 2023. Wood biomass consumption was at 1.351 quad last year and is expected to increase to 1.395 quad this year and 1.421 quad next year.

The commercial sector consumed 0.035 quad of waste biomass and 0.083 quad of wood biomass last year. Those levels of consumption are expected to be maintained in 2022 and 2023.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.454 quad of wood biomass in this year and next year, flat with 2021.

The electric power sector had 6,080 megawatts (MW) of biomass generating capacity in place at the end of 2021, including 3,735 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,346 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to increase to 6,114 MW by the end of this year, including 3,768 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,346 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to fall to 6,050 MW by the end of 2023, with waste biomass capacity falling to 3,704 MW and wood biomass capacity being maintained at 2,346 MW.

Across other sectors, biomass capacity was at 6,224 MW at the end of 2021, including 778 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,446 MW of wood biomass capacity. Total biomass capacity is expected to fall to 6,216 MW by the end of this year, with waste biomass capacity maintained at 778 MW and wood biomass capacity falling to 5,438 MW. Biomass capacity is expected to rebound to 6,228 MW by the end of 2023, including 778 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,540 MW of wood biomass capacity.