EIA updates bioenergy production, capacity forecasts

Renewables are expected to account for 22 percent of U.S. electricity production this year, increasing to 23 percent next year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released April 12. Renewables accounted for 20 percent of electricity production in 2021.

The electric power sector is expected to generate 25.8 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity from biomass this year, including 14.9 billion kWh from waste biomass and 10.8 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation is expected to increase slightly next year, reaching 26 billion kWh, including 14.9 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.1 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation was at 27.9 billion kWh last year, including 15.5 billion kWh from waste biomass and 12.4 billion kWh from wood biomass.

Across other sectors biomass generation was at 27.6 billion kWh in 2021, including 2.8 billion kWh from waste biomass and 24.8 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation is expected to be at 27.5 billion kWh this year, including 2.8 billion kWh from waste biomass and 24.7 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation is expected to be maintained at those levels through 2023.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.228 quadrillion Btus (quad) of waste biomass this year, falling to 0.227 quad next year. The sector consumed 0.236 quad of waste biomass in 2021. The electric power sector is also expected to consume 0.176 quad of wood biomass in 2022, increasing to 0.18 quad in 2023. Consumption was at 0.199 quad last year.

The industrial sector consumed 0.16 quad of waste biomass last year. That level of consumption is currently expected to be maintained through 2022, increasing to 0.161 quad in 2023. The sector also consumed 1.342 quad of wood biomass last year, with consumption expected to increase to 1.383 quad this year and 1.419 quad in 2023.

The commercial sector consumed 0.035 quad of waste biomass and 0.083 quad of wood biomass in 2021. Those levels of consumption are expected to be maintained through 2022 and 2023.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.464 quad of wood biomass this year and next year, flat with 2021.

Across all sectors, the consumption of waste biomass is expected to reach 0.425 quad in 2022 and 0.423 quad in 2023, compared to 0.431 quad in 2021. The consumption of wood biomass was at 2.087 quad last year and is expected to reach 2.104 quad this year and 2.145 quad next year.

The electric power sector is expected to have 6,010 megawatts (MW) of biomass generating capacity in place by the end of 2022, including 3,708 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,303 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to fall to 5,928 MW by the end of 2023, including 3,625 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,303 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity was at 5,977 MW at the end of 2021, including 3,674 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,303 MW of wood biomass capacity.

Across other sectors, biomass capacity was at 6,241 MW at the end of last year, including 829 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,385 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to fall to 6,197 MW at the end of 2022, including 829 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,367 MW of wood biomass capacity, before increasing to 6,200 MW at the end of 2023, including 829 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,371 MW of wood biomass capacity.