USDA maintains forecast for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel

By Erin Voegele | June 10, 2022

The USDA maintained its 2022-’23 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released June 10. The overall soybean outlook is for lower beginning and ending stocks and higher prices.

Lower beginning stocks reflects increased exports for 2021-’22, according to USDA. Soybean exports for 2021-‘22 are raised 30 million bushels to 2.17 billion reflecting strong export sales and a reduced export forecast for Brazil.

The USDA currently predicts 12 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production in 2022-’23, a forecast maintained from the May WASDE. Approximately 10.7 billion pounds of soybean oil was used to produce biofuels in 2021-’22, up from 8.85 billion pounds in 2020-’21.

With reduced supplies for 2022-‘23 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, down 30 million. The soybean price is forecast at $14.70 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month. Soybean oil prices are expected to be at 70 cents per pound.

Global 2022-‘23 soybean ending stocks are raised 900,000 tons to 100.5 million, driven mainly by higher beginning stocks for Argentina and Brazil. Argentina’s 2021-‘22 soybean production is raised 1.4 million tons to 43.4 million on better-than-expected reported yields. Brazil’s 2021-‘22 soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 126.0 million on higher area reported for Mato Grosso.