EIA updates bioenergy forecasts

By Erin Voegele | May 10, 2023

Renewables are currently expected to account for 23 percent of U.S. electricity production in 2023, increasing to 26 percent in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released May 9. Renewables accounted for 22 percent of U.S. electricity production last year.

Biomass is expected to be used to generate 25.2 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity this year, increasing to 25.5 billion kWh in 2023. Biomass generation was at 26.7 billion kWh in 2022.

The electric power sector consumed 0.213 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass last year, with consumption expected to fall to 0.203 quad in 2023 and 2024. The sector also consumed 0.2 quad of wood biomass in 2022, with consumption expected to be at 0.185 quad this year and 0.189 quad next year.

The industrial sector consumed 0.161 quad of waste biomass in 2022. That level of consumption is expected to be maintained in 2023, increasing to 0.162 quad in 2024. The sector also consumed 1.278 quad of wood biomass last year, with consumption expected to reach 1.327 quad this year and 1.355 quad next year.

The commercial sector consumed 0.037 quad of waste biomass and 0.083 quad of wood biomass last year. Those levels of consumption are expected to continue in 2023 and 2024.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.54 quad of wood biomass this year and next year, up from 0.539 quad in 2022.

Across all sectors, waste biomass consumption is expected to reach 0.402 quad in both 2023 and 2024, down from 0.411 quad in 2022. Wood biomass consumption was at 2.1 quad last year and is expected to increase to 2.137 quad this year and 2.169 quad in 2024.

The electric power sector had 3.5 gigawatts (GW) of waste biomass generation capacity in place in 2022. Waste biomass capacity is expected to increase to 3.6 GW this year and be maintained at that level through 2023. The sector also had 2.4 GW of wood biomass capacity in place last year, with that level of capacity currently expected to be maintained through 2023 and 2024.

The industrial and commercial sectors had 5.5 GW of wood biomass capacity in place in 2022, with capacity expected to increase to 5.6 GW this year and be maintained at that level in 2023. The sectors also had 0.8 GW of waste biomass capacity in place in 2022, with that level of capacity expected to be maintained through 2024.