Renewable natural gas (RNG) emerged as part of the alternative energy conversation in the early 2000s as waste-to-energy pioneers began to realize its potential as a low-carbon fuel. At the time, support was mixed—energy experts debated RNG’s viability, the technology was in its infancy, and regulatory backing was inconsistent. Infrastructure was sparse, and big energy companies were largely uninterested. You were more likely to encounter two guys in a pickup truck roaming the countryside looking for landfills to tap than representatives from any major oil and gas company.

Yet, as the threat of climate change intensified and the appetite for renewables grew, RNG began gaining traction as governments and businesses sought sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels. Nearly two decades later, RNG has matured into a vital component of the energy mix—with energy derived from landfill, dairy, wastewater and food waste feedstocks used to heat homes and businesses, fuel heavy-duty vehicles, and power industrial operations.

While acceptance has grown, the industry has faced challenges. Several high-profile projects have struggled with production issues and high costs, drawing public scrutiny. Critics question whether there is enough supply to meet growing energy demands, especially as many of the most straightforward projects have already been developed. Those questions—paired with uncertainty about the long-term stability of current regulatory support—have led some to wonder if RNG’s momentum will continue or plateau.

So, what is the next chapter for RNG?

At Viridi Energy, we are more confident than ever that increasing demand, expanding use cases, and growing industry sophistication are decidedly moving RNG from a niche energy alternative to a cornerstone of the future energy landscape.

Charting the recent expansion of RNG gives a glimpse of what’s to come. In September, the RNG Coalition reported that 433 RNG facilities were now operational across North America. A year prior, the industry celebrated the milestone of 300 facilities in operation, representing a significant 44% year-over-year increase and more than a 1,300% increase from the 30 facilities in operation when the RNG Coalition was formed in 2011. With many more facilities under construction or in the planning stages, the RNG Coalition estimates the industry will reach 500 North American facilities by 2025, 1,000 by 2030, and 5,000 by 2040.

This growing supply—and RNG’s near-identical chemical composition to traditional natural gas—is supporting its economical use as a sustainable alternative across various industries. Major utilities, particularly in Canada, are integrating RNG into pipelines to reduce emissions and power grids. Transportation companies rely on RNG for heavy-duty fleets, while sectors such as tech, agriculture and food processing turn to RNG to meet their sustainability targets.

Moreover, favorable regulations like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the Renewable Fuel Standard, along with Canada’s goal to replace 10% of natural gas with RNG by 2030, have strengthened the business case for RNG. These policies have spurred investment, fostered long-term agreements between utilities and

While RNG is already a key component of the North American energy mix, we’re just scratching the surface of its applications.

According to Boston Consulting Group’s report, “Is Renewable Natural Gas Poised for Future Growth or Doomed to Decline?,” U.S. demand for RNG could increase nearly tenfold to around 2 billion cubic feet per day by 2040. RNG’s scalability makes it particularly attractive to high-demand sectors like AI, data centers and logistics, where energy needs are rapidly rising.

Despite concerns about feedstock limitations due to the number of existing and developing projects, ample supply remains. BCG estimates that less than one-third of economically viable RNG feedstocks are currently under contract, suggesting sufficient inventory to meet growing demand as operators shift toward more complex, higher-potential projects.

At Viridi Energy, we see this emerging infrastructure as an essential driver of the next chapter of RNG. In the coming years, RNG will increasingly enter the everyday lives of regular energy consumers—not just as a fuel for specialized uses, but as a true complement to traditional natural gas in powering everything from home heating systems to the electricity grids that keep their lights on.

Two decades after RNG first emerged in the alternative energy conversation, the industry has made significant strides from its early days of landfill gas projects. While challenges remain, there are strong reasons for optimism backed by real progress.

Today, the sector benefits from experienced teams, technological advancements that lower costs, and increased investor interest. With hundreds of facilities already operating and many more in development, the groundwork for RNG’s success is well established.

The industry now faces the opportunity—and responsibility—to leverage past lessons learned and current opportunities to deliver on the long-held promise of a more sustainable, RNG-powered future.

Author: Chet Benham
President & Chief Operating officer, Viridi Energy
viridi@backbaycommunications.com

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