EIA updates bioenergy forecasts

Renewable electricity is expected is expected to account for 22 percent of U.S. electricity generation this year, expanding to 24 percent in 2023, according to the February edition of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 8. Renewable electricity generation accounted for 20 percent in 2021.

The electric power sector is expected to generate 26.2 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity from biomass this year, including 15.4 billion kWh from waste biomass and 10.8 billion kWh from wood biomass. Generation is expected to expand to 26.5 billion kWh in 2023, including 15.4 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.2 billion kWh from wood biomass. The electric power sector generated 27.7 billion kWh from biomass last year, including 15.6 billion kWh from waste biomass and 12.2 billion kWh from wood biomass.

Across other sectors, biomass generation was at 27.7 billion kWh in 2021, including 2.7 billion kWh from waste biomass and 24.9 billion kWh from wood biomass. Those levels of generation are expected to be maintained through 2022 and 2023.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.233 quadrillion Btu (quad) of wood biomass this year, expanding to 0.234 quad in 2023. The sector consumed 0.235 quad of wood biomass last year. The sector is also expected to consume 0.175 quad of waste biomass in 2022, increasing to 0.179 quad next year. The sector consumed 0.196 quad of wood biomass in 2021.

The industrial sector consumed 0.159 quad of waste biomass in 2021. That level of consumption is expected to be maintained through 2022 and 2023. The sector also consumed 1.356 quad of wood biomass last year, with consumption expected to expand to 1.4 quad in 2022 and 1.416 quad in 2023.

The commercial sector consumed 0.035 quad of waste biomass and 0.082 quad of wood biomass last year. Those levels of consumption are expected to be maintained in 2022 and 2023.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.455 quad of wood biomass in 2022 and 2023, flat with 2021.

The electric power sector had 6,132 megawatts (MW) of biomass generating capacity in place at the end of 2021, including 3,786 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,347 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to increase to 6,175 MW by the end of 2022, including 3,829 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,347 MW of wood biomass capacity. The sector’s biomass capacity is currently expected to grow tot 6,194 MW by the end of 2023, including 3,848 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,347 MW of wood biomass capacity.

Across other sectors, biomass generating capacity was at 6,289 MW at the end of last year, including 778 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,510 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to fall to 6,281 MW by the end of 2022, with waste biomass capacity maintained at 788 MW and wood biomass capacity falling to 5,503 MW. Biomass capacity is expected to rebound to 6,293 MW by the end of 2023, with waste biomass capacity maintained at 778 MW and wood biomass capacity increasing to 5,515 MW.