As of January 2025, Forisk’s wood bioenergy database tracks 387 operating and announced projects related to wood pellets, electricity, combined heat and power, liquid fuels and thermal. These projects represent a combined potential wood consumption of 115 million green tons per year. Based on Forisk’s viability screening, 358 projects pass, indicating potential wood use of 99.4 million green tons per year. The South leads the United States in bioenergy investment as measured by potential wood use, with 61% of the total possible new demand. This highlights the attractiveness of the South due to feedstock availability, continued government support, and increasingly, the ideal geology for carbon capture and storage.How are bioenergy projects evaluated? Forisk tracks all publicly announced wood-using bioenergy projects in the continental U.S. and applies a two-part screen to identify projects that are likely to succeed based on technology and status. If the technology of a project is viable today (such as wood pelletizing or wood to electricity) at commercial scale, then the project passes the technology screen. The status screen evaluates projects based on where they are in the development process. If a project has two or more necessary permits, contracts or financing commitments, then it passes the status screen. These include air quality permits, power purchase agreements, supply agreements and engineering procurement contracts. “Likely” or “viable” projects are those that pass both screens.Weighted Average Year-Over-Year Wood Fiber Prices: Recent Data&nbsp; Data from the Forisk Wood Fiber Review indicates that U.S. softwood fiber prices rose by 2% year-over-year through Q4 2024, while Canadian prices climbed by 5%. Quarterly price declines in the U.S. are attributed to market adjustments driven by an oversupply from natural disasters and reduced consumer demand. In Canada, prices generally saw moderate increases, with most producers purchasing the fiber required for their reduced operating rates, though at higher prices.Canadian roundwood prices increased by 18%, while chip prices increased by 1% year-over-year. In British Columbia, softwood pulplog prices fell by 4% for Q4 2024, whereas they increased by 7% in the Maritimes. Delivered softwood chip prices increased by 11% in Alberta and 4% in East Ontario/Quebec but fell 1% in British Columbia. According to Stephen Wright, product manager of the FWFR, “The Canadian forest products industry continues to face significant contraction, with 862 million board feet of capacity reductions announced across three sawmills this quarter. However, the avoidance of a prolonged rail strike and a relatively calm fire season provided some temporary relief.”U.S. roundwood prices increased by 6% year-over-year, and chip prices rose by 1%, though this varied regionally. In the Lake States and Northwest U.S., prices for most products were flat or declined year-over-year, except for hardwood roundwood, which increased 2% and 8%, respectively. In the U.S. Southeast and South Central regions, fiber prices fell for six out of the eight products tracked, with Southeast softwood residual chip prices falling the most (15%) and South Central hardwood roundwood increasing the most (7%) for the quarter. Year-over-year, prices for softwood and hardwood residual chips and roundwood were mixed.&nbsp;In the U.S. Northeast, fiber prices decreased across most projects, with hardwood residual chips having the largest decrease, down 11% year-over-year. Brooks Mendell, CEO of Forisk Consulting, commented, “Softwood lumber markets seem to be showing life, though many producers noted no changes to their previously planned extended outages during the holiday season.”This article includes data from the Forisk Wood Fiber Review, a quarterly publication tracking North America’s major wood fiber and log markets, and the Forisk Research Quarterly, which includes forest industry forecasts and analysis by sector. Authors: Brooks Mendell &amp; Stephen Wright&nbsp; Forisk Consulting LLC&nbsp; 770-725-8477&nbsp; bmendell@forisk.com

2025-02-21 - Wood Bioenergy Projects and Year-Over-Year North American Fiber Prices (Biomass Magazine)

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As of January 2025, Forisk’s wood bioenergy database tracks 387 operating and announced projects related to wood pellets, electricity, combined heat and power, liquid fuels and thermal.

Wood Bioenergy Projects and Year-Over-Year North American Fiber Prices

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