USDA maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Nov. 9. The estimate for 2021-’22 soybean oil use in biofuel was increased.

The U.S. soybean outlook for 2022-’23 is for increased production, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.35 billion bushels, up 33 million on higher yields. Higher yields in Iowa and Missouri account for most of the change in production.

Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels on increased domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast. With exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised 20 million bushels to 220 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022-’23 is forecast at $14 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil price is also unchanged at 69 cents per pound. The soybean meal price is forecast at $400 per short ton, up $10.

The USDA currently forecasts 11.8 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2022-’23, a forecast maintained from the October WASDE. The estimate for 2021-’22 soybean oil use in biofuel production was increased to 10.35 billion pounds, up from last month’s estimate of 10.2 billion pounds. Soybean oil use in biofuel production was at 8.92 billion pounds for 2020-’21.

Global soybean production is down 500,000 tons to 390.5 million, mainly on lower production for Argentina. Area harvested for Argentina is reduced reflecting in-country estimates.

Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 121.9 million tons, up 1.4 million. Soybean stocks account for most of the change with an increase to China’s stocks based on a revision to 2021-’22 imports.