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EIA reduces 2025 production forecasts for SAF and renewable diesel in June STEO

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By Erin Krueger

June 10, 2025

Advanced Biofuels Sustainable Aviation Fuels Markets Operations 

The U.S. EIA reduced its 2025 and 2026 production forecasts for a category of biofuels that includes SAF in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 10. The forecast for 2025 renewable diesel production was also revised down.

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Operable U.S. biofuel production capacity expanded slightly in March, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on May 30. Feedstock consumption was up when compared to the previous month, but down from March 2024.

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PurposeEnergy on May 29 announced the grand opening of its state-of-the-art anaerobic digestion facility in St. Albans, Vermont. Construction began in May 2023, and the facility began exporting electricity to the Vermont grid in December 2024. This

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The Capital Regional District, working together with FortisBC Energy Inc. and Waga Energy Canada, has started producing renewable natural gas (RNG) at a new facility located at the Hartland Landfill.

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Vanguard Renewables has announced the opening of its newest anaerobic digestion and depackaging facility, located at Dinnerbell Farms, a family-owned dairy farm in Eden, Wisconsin. The facility will convert food and beverage waste into RNG.

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A Never-Ending Pursuit

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By Keith Loria

May 20, 2025

Fire and explosion protection experts share insights regarding product improvements, personnel training and technological improvements.

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Montauk Renewables Inc. on May 8 announced the company produced 1.4 million MMBtu of RNG during Q1 2025, unchanged when compared to the same period of last year. Renewable electricity generation was at 46,000 MWh, down 8,000 MWh.

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Opal Fuels released first quarter financial results on May 8, reporting the company produced 1.1 million MMBtu of renewable natural gas during the quarter, up 38% when compared to the same period of last year.

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Gevo Inc. CEO Patrick Gruber discussed plans for a proposed 30 MMgy alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) project in North Dakota during the company’s first quarter earnings call, held May 13. The company has not disclosed a timeline for development of the project.

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Calumet Inc. on May 9 announced sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) capacity at its Montana Renewables biorefinery is expected to reach 120 MMgy to 150 MMgy sooner than previously reported for a fraction of the originally expected cost.

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Tidewater Renewables on May 8 announced that its 3,000-barrel-per-day renewable diesel plant in Prince George, British Columbia, operated at 75% capacity during the first quarter, up from 71% during the same period of last year.

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Aemetis Inc. released Q1 results on May 8, reporting increased biogas production, progress with efficiency improvements at the Keyes ethanol plant, and resumed biodiesel deliveries. Financing activities are also underway for a proposed SAF project.

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Woodchuck, an AI-powered climate tech company focused on transforming wood waste into renewable energy, on May 8 officially opened its flagship biomass processing facility in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer attended the event.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its 2025 and 2026 forecasts for renewable diesel and “other biofuel” production, which includes SAF, in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, released May 6.

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Marathon Petroleum Corp. on May 6 reported improved first quarter EBITDA for its renewable diesel segment on increased utilization of its facilities, particularly the Martinez biorefinery in California, and higher margins.

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Canada-based Imperial Oil Ltd. on May 2 confirmed that construction on the renewable diesel facility at its Strathcona refinery near Edmonton, Alberta, will be complete during Q2. The project is expected to begin operations in mid-2025.

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PBF Energy on May 1 announced that its St. Bernard Renewables facility produced approximately 10,000 barrels per day of renewable diesel during Q1, down from 17,000 barrels per day during the Q4 2024.

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Neste Corp. released first quarter financial results on April 29, reporting improved renewable fuel demand and increased SAF production. Margins, however, were low and feedstock costs were high.

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CVR Energy Inc.’s renewables segment on April 28 reported positive adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 despite the expiration of the $1 per gallon blenders tax credit. Renewable diesel production volumes were up for the three-month period.

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Viridi Energy on April 29 announced it has begun operations at its new RNG facility in Summerdale, Alabama. The landfill gas-to-RNG project was developed in partnership with the Solid Waste Disposal Authority of Baldwin County.

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Phillips 66 released Q1 financial results on April 25, reporting reduced pre-tax earnings for its renewable fuels segment despite increased production volumes. The changing tax credit structure is one factor that impacted earnings.

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Valero Energy Corp. released Q1 financial results on April 24, reporting that a tough margin environment negatively impacted the company’s renewable diesel operations during the three-month period. Valero’s ethanol segment was profitable.

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TotalEnergies on April 22 announced plans to reconfigure the petrochemical operations at its refinery in Antwerp, Belgium. One planned change will add sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity via coprocessing.

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At the 2025 International Biomass Conference and Expo, panelists offered insight and solutions for wood pellet and biogas producers to streamline their process and maximize production.

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Neste has started producing SAF at its renewable products refinery in Rotterdam. The refinery has been modified to enable Neste to produce up to 500,000 tons of SAF per year. Neste’s global SAF production capacity is now 1.5 million tons.

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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. has reported that its biorefinery in Prince George, British Columbia, operated at 88% capacity last year. A final investment decision on the company’s proposed SAF project is expected by year end.

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Aemetis Inc. on April 8 announced that its production of renewable natural gas (RNG) increased 55% in March compared to February. Aemetis Biogas also completed a sale of LCFS and D3 RINs at the end of Q1.

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WM April 2 announced the company will celebrate the official grand openings for four recycling and renewable natural gas (RNG) projects across the U.S. The RNG projects are located near Chicago and Philadelphia.

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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. has reported there was a minor fire on April 1 in the main renewable diesel process unit at the corporation's renewable diesel refinery located in Prince George, British Columbia.

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Gevo Inc. CEO Patrick Gruber discussed the company’s proposed sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project in South Dakota during a fourth quarter earnings call, held March 27, indicating financial close could be achieved by year-end.

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