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Most areas of Corn Belt expected to perform well

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By Jason Sagebiel, FCStone

October 29, 2015

Feedstocks Markets 

Harvest has wrapped up and yield reports have been better than expected. Aside from the Eastern Corn Belt, most areas of the Corn Belt are projected to outperform last year's yield numbers.

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News that Chinese companies have petitioned the Chinese government to launch an anti-dumping investigation over imports of U.S. distillers grains is a factor in lowered distillers grains prices and slowed exports, but it's not the only factor.

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LNG export on the verge of reality

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By Andy Huenefeld, U.S. Energy Services

October 28, 2015

As the U.S. natural gas market turns its eyes to 2016, there will be a new variable in the mix. After years of talking, financing, and construction, the first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is set to leave the U.S. Gulf Coast in Q1.

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Ethanol prices finding trading range

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By Rick Kment, DTN

October 28, 2015

Through Q4, the ethanol market seems to be confined to a 10-cent trading range. It's trapped, not only by a range-bound corn market and a supply-burdened crude oil market which has pivoted around the $45 per barrel price level.

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In the wake of the Petrobras scandal, the Brazil government shifted policy, reinstating the infrastructure tax on gasoline and raising gasoline prices in late 2014. Both moves made hydrous ethanol more competitive with gasoline.

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Unprocessed feed grain exports accounted for less than 15 percent of U.S. production, but adding grain equivalents for value-added products, such as ethanol, DDGS and meat, raises that to 26 percent.

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Green Plains Inc.today announced that it has acquired an ethanol production facility in Hopewell, Virginia, from Future Fuels LLP. It will increase the company's annual production capacity to nearly 1.1 billion gallons per year.

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A new survey shows that, once informed about the RFS, 79 percent of Republican and 90 percent of Democrat caucus-goers from Iowa think the RFS is good for the nation. America's Renewable Future and DuPont jointly released the results Oct. 21.

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EPA posts data for renewable identification numbers through September, showing trends for cellulosic and advanced biofuels RINs generation, as well as ethanol and biodiesel.

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EIA reports Brazil biofuel production in 2014 was 16.7 million tons of oil equivalent, a 5.5 percent increase from 2013. 2014 ethanol production grew 4 percent over the previous, setting a new record at 492,844 barrels per day.

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The International Energy Agency released its annual Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report at a Group of 20 leaders' meeting in Turkey. The report forecasts global market trends and developments for renewable energy and biofuels to 2020.

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Have you ever heard anyone use the phrase high-octane to describe a person or an event? I have. And the connotation was always positive.

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U.S. EPA data on RINs generation through August reveals cellulosic D3 biofuels continue to climb, advanced biofuel D5 RINs generation is up sharply and the mainstay, D6 renewable fuels (primarily ethanol) continues on pace.

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Total U.S. corn production will be lower than estimated last month, but the average yield of their crop is expected to be slightly higher, according to the agency's October World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimate.

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Ethanol dry mills, at 445.2 million bushels, used nearly 90 percent of the corn consumed for fuel ethanol production in August, the remainder being used by wet millers.

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Cars have been streaming into NuVu Fuels in Ionia, Michigan, this week. The new c-store, which sells blended fuels and locally-grown food, is seven miles from Carbon Green Green Bioenergy LLC, which provides the ethanol.

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In August, U.S. ethanol exports fell 35 percent t to the lowest monthly volume in more than two years, according to RFA analysis of government data released Oct. 7. DDGS exports also decreased 6 percent from the record high set in July.

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After a year and a half of record earnings, the ethanol industry stabilized in 2015, according to a CoBank ethanol industry report. Going forward, ethanol margins are expected to remain “modestly positive,� on average, for the next 12 to 18 months.

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U.S. Grains Council says trade ministers' approval of the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a win for U.S. agriculture and trade partners.Reducing barriers to open trade benefits both the grain industry and overseas customers.

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Platts, a global provider of energy and commodities information, has began publishing price assessments for a key ethanol coproduct increasingly used as animal feed in the United States and globally.

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UNL to lead research project to improve sorghum as a biofuel

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By University of Nebraska Lincoln

October 02, 2015

The University of Nebraska-Lincoln will lead a $13.5 million, multi-institutional research effort to improve sorghum as a sustainable source for biofuel production.

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Joule, a company working toward commercial-scale production of liquid fuels from recycled CO2, announced that its fuel grade Sunflow-E ethanol has been registered by the U.S. EPA for commercial use in E10 and E15 gasoline blends.

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Commodities: USDA yield projections may be justified

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By Jason Sagebiel, FCStone

September 29, 2015

The USDA has been more optimistic with yield potential than most of the trade. With harvest getting started in Midwest areas less affected by the heavy rains yield outlooks look more promising and the USDA may be justified in the projections.

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Commodities: Gulf storms can impact natural gas market

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By Andy Huenefeld, U.S. Energy Services

September 29, 2015

In general, hurricanes do not pose the same level of fundamental threat to the natural gas market as they once did. Still, a Gulf storm can still usher volatility into the futures market as traders react to the news and anticipate the impact.

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Aemetis Inc., an advanced renewable fuels and biochemicals company, announced the harvesting of 12- to 15- foot tall biomass sorghum grown in Central California. The company has a multi-year strategy to transition from grain to biomass feedstocks.

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The California Air Resources Board has re-adopted a Low Carbon Fuel Standard requiring a 10 percent reduction in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 2020.

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E85 would make the original RVO achievable, a new report from Babcock and Pouliot at Iowa State's CARD, shows. The economists analyze 3 years of retail data on E85 price and sales to estimate national demand, if E85 is priced right.

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The DDGS market continues to move back down to the lower end of the spectrum as a percentage of corn. Chinese buying, which moved the market up through the spring and early summer, has been on the sidelines for the past several months.

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Ethanol prices are trading at a 14-cent premium to RBOB gasoline prices. Recent premiums are at the highest levels seen since January 2015, and continue to focus on current and future market strength.

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Ethanol D6 RIN prices have stayed relatively stable over the summer while D4 biodiesel RINs prices plummeted, Illinois economists Scott Irwin and Darrel Good point out in their analysis of RINs markets.

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