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EIA maintains 2025, 2026 production forecasts for renewable diesel, SAF

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By Erin Krueger

May 07, 2025

Advanced Biofuels Sustainable Aviation Fuels Operations Markets 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its 2025 and 2026 forecasts for renewable diesel and “other biofuel” production, which includes SAF, in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, released May 6.

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Reps. Mike Carey, R-Ohio, and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, on May 1 introduced legislation that aims to retroactively extend the biodiesel blenders tax credit (BTC) and the second-generation biofuel producer tax credit.

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Canada-based Imperial Oil Ltd. on May 2 confirmed that construction on the renewable diesel facility at its Strathcona refinery near Edmonton, Alberta, will be complete during Q2. The project is expected to begin operations in mid-2025.

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A new study commissioned by Clean Fuels Alliance America shows the U.S. biomass-based diesel industry generated $42.4 billion in economic activity in 2024, supported 107,400 jobs and paid $6 billion in annual wages.

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A broad coalition representing more than 350 trucking fleets, shippers, and supporters of freight movement is urging Congress to extend the biodiesel blenders’ tax credit to lower supply chain costs and protect consumers from inflationary pressures.

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BWC Terminals on April 22 celebrated the official completion of its expanded renewable fuels terminal at the Port of Stockton. The facility is designed to safely and efficiently transfer renewable diesel and biodiesel from marine vessels.

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Phillips 66 released Q1 financial results on April 25, reporting reduced pre-tax earnings for its renewable fuels segment despite increased production volumes. The changing tax credit structure is one factor that impacted earnings.

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Mammoet on April 23 announced that it will be implementing HVO fuel across the Netherlands, U.K. and Canada. The investment in HVO was driven by higher demand from lower carbon solutions from the company’s customers.

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On April 23, the Advanced Biofuels Association (ABFA) met with officials in the U.S. EPA to convey the vital importance of domestic biofuel production to the Trump-Vance administration’s energy dominance policy agenda.

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Desmet has been awarded a new contract by LG-ENI Biorefining, a joint venture between LG Chem and ENI Italy, to will deliver a HVO pretreatment plant in Daesan, South Korea. The biorefinery will produce SAF, renewable diesel and naphtha.

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Metro Ports on April 8 announced significant environmental milestone in its voluntary efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By switching to renewable diesel, the organization reduced its carbon emissions by 85%.

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CoBank latest quarterly research report highlights current challenges facing the biobased diesel industry. The report cites policy uncertainty and trade disruptions due to tariff disputes as factors impacting biofuel producers.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its 2025 forecasts for renewable diesel and biodiesel in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released April 10. The outlook for “other biofuel” production, which includes SAF, was raised.

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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. has reported that its biorefinery in Prince George, British Columbia, operated at 88% capacity last year. A final investment decision on the company’s proposed SAF project is expected by year end.

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New York's DCAS has awarded its first tender to buy renewable diesel for its ferries. The tender is part of a plan announced in October 2024 to transition the Staten Island Ferry and other vessels to renewable diesel.

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Neste and DB Schenker, a logistics service provider, have collaborated to work towards expanding DB Schenker’s adoption of Neste MY Renewable Diesel in Asia-Pacific. DB Schenker trialed the fuel from December 2024 to February 2025 in Singapore.

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The 2025 International Biomass Conference & Expo, held March 18-20 in Atlanta Georgia, featured of insightful discussions, cutting-edge technology showcases, and unparalleled networking opportunities.

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Clean Fuels Alliance America is urging the U.S. EPA to establish robust, timely RFS volumes for 2026 and beyond and suggesting the agency set the 2026 RFS renewable volume obligation (RVO) for biomass-based diesel at 5.25 billion gallons.

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Aemetis Inc. released fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results on March 13, reporting increased revenues for its U.S. ethanol and biogas operations as well as its biodiesel operations in India.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its outlook for 2025 and 2026 renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released March 11.

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MOL Group has produced a diesel fuel containing hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at the refinery of Slovnaft in Bratislava. The quality of the products has been verified by radioisotope analysis.

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The U.S. EIA maintained its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 renewable diesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 11. The production outlook for other biofuels, including SAF, was also maintained.

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Neste Corp. on Feb. 13 released fourth quarter financial results, reporting that its renewables segment was impacted by both market and operational challenges during the three-month period. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sales, however, were up.

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PBF Energy Inc. on Feb. 13 announced that its St. Bernard Renewables facility produced 17,000 barrels per day of renewable diesel during the fourth quarter, up from 13,000 barrels per day during the third quarter.

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Marathon Petroleum Corp. released fourth quarter financial results on Feb. 4, reporting a profitable three-month period for its newly formed renewable diesel segment. Improved earnings are attributed to increased capacity utilization.

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Phillips 66 on Jan. 31 released fourth quarter financial results, reporting improved earnings for its renewable fuels segment on higher margins for its Rodeo complex in California and stronger international results.

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Imperial Oil Ltd. on Jan. 31 confirmed construction on the renewable diesel facility at its Strathcona refinery near Edmonton, Alberta, progressing on schedule. The biorefinery project is on track to being operations in mid-2025.

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Chevron Corp. released fourth quarter financial results on Jan. 31. During an earnings call, company officials confirmed that the renewable diesel expansion project at the Geismar biorefinery in Louisiana is undergoing final commissioning.

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Clean Fuels Alliance America hosted its annual Clean Fuels Conference in late January. During the event, experts shared the state of the biobased diesel industry today and the outlook for the near-and long-term.

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Federated Co-operatives Ltd. on Jan. 17 announced it has shelved plans for a 15,000-barrel-per-day renewable diesel plant proposed for development in Regina, Saskatchewan. Plans for an adjacent canola crush facility are also being paused.

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